Working Papers

“Mass Layoffs & Migration in Brazil” w/ Fabiano Dal-Ri

This paper investigates the impact of unexpected employment shocks on workers’ migration decisions using matched employer-employee data from Brazil’s formal sector. Leveraging an event-study design, we find that workers who separate from their firm during a mass layoff face a significant and persistent 10% decline in their earnings relative to non-laid-off workers. We also find that laid-off workers are 15 percentage points more likely to migrate to another labor market. While all laid-off workers migrate at higher rates than non-laid-off workers, we find that men migrate at higher rates than women, and that non-white workers migrate more than white workers. We explain these patterns through a descriptive exercise comparing wage trajectories of migrant and non-migrant laid-off workers. We find 1.5% higher earnings among migrants than stayers, with almost all gains concentrated among men and larger gains among non-white workers. We complement our empirical evidence with a location-choice model that delivers a gravity equation for bilateral migration flows. Gravity estimates indicate that a one- standard-deviation increase in layoff intensity raises flows out of the origin by roughly 1-3%. Taken together, the findings show that mass layoffs trigger substantial but selective geographic reallocation, and that unequal access to migration shapes the distributional consequences of employment shocks. [Draft Available upon Request]

“Impact of M&As on Local Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil”

This paper estimates the impact of concentration on local labor market outcomes in Brazil using mergers and acquisitions (M&As) as events in an event study design. Using matched employer-employee data, it compares outcomes for all formally employed Brazilian workers between 2002 and 2017, before and after an M&A event. [Draft Forthcoming]

“Gendered Labour Response to Weather Risk and Shocks: Evidence from Rural Nigeria” w/ Obianuju Nnadozie & John Giles

This paper investigates whether and how rural households in Nigeria adapt their labor supply in response to weather risk and shocks, with particular attention to gender-differentiated effects. We employ three waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey (GHS) data combined with weather data from the global Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) database. Our results indicate that households reduce participation and hours worked in farm self-employment and increase participation and hours worked in off-farm wage and self-employment in response to weather risks. These adjustments are significantly weaker in female-dominated households, indicating gender-based constraints in labor adaptation to weather risk. Weather shocks (drought and flood) have more limited effects on household labour supply, and we do not find strong evidence of gender heterogeneity in the response of labour supply to weather shocks. In sum, our findings show that adaptation to weather risk, rather than coping with weather shocks, drives labour reallocation. [Draft Available upon Request]

Work in Progress

“Turnover, Training & Job Creation in High-Value Service Industries in Developing Countries”

“Underemployment of College Graduates” w/ Justin Bloesch